Polls and early primaries mean NOTHING!

What if the polls and early voting mean little to nothing? What if the Republican primaries turn out to be Rubio, Trump, Cruz, Bush and Christi in that order?  What if the Democrat primaries turn out to be Hillary, Sanders and O’Malley in that order? Probably the Democrat primary would not be that much of a surprise, but a lot of political pundits and media are going to be wrong if Rubio get the Republican nomination. 

According to polls, Donald Trump is leading the pack on the Republican side. He has 36 percent of the vote in the latest poll, and he's followed by Ted Cruz at around 19 percent and Marco Rubio at around 12 percent. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is leading with 48 points over Bernie Sanders' 41 points.

In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was leading in the polls at this point in the election. In 2008, when we had the last Democratic competition, Clinton was leading over Barack Obama in early January.

I do not have much confidence in polls. How well informed are the people that are being polled?  How many people are willing to talk to a stranger about how they are going to vote? I suspect a lot of times the candidate’s name they give the pollster is the last name they heard on television they do not want to appear stupid so they pull a name out of the air. How many that are polled will actually vote?

This election will be more difficult to call than previous ones because I think voters are tired of the “us” vs “them”. The “us” are ordinary citizens and the “them” are political pundits and media elites who hold the “us” in contempt. I believe the political pundits and media elites see the American people as incapable of reason and stupid.

I have said in earlier post that I thought Marco Rubio at 43 was too young to be president, but I could be wrong. Rubio’s sound bites: “We cannot go back to the leaders and ideas of the past”; “Yesterday is over, and we are never going back”; “You see, we Americans are proud of our history, but our country has always been about the future. And before us now is the opportunity to author the greatest chapter yet in the amazing story of America”; “We can’t be going back to the leaders and ideas of the past”; “We must change the decisions we are making by changing the people who are making them.” This may be what first time voters and millenniums want to hear. His youth may be a factor in helping him win.

I think far too much is being made of the Iowa caucus. Iowa is of little significance to the overall 2016 election. The state has just 3 million of the U.S.’s nearly 319 million residents, so it doesn’t have many votes in the Electoral College that will eventually elect a president from the parties’ nominees. The state makes up only about 1 percent of delegates who will later choose the nominees. The Republican Party has 2,472 delegates nationally; a candidate needs 1,236 to win the nomination. Iowa only has 30 Republican delegates, or 1.2 percent of the U.S. delegates. The media is what makes the Iowa caucus important. The media hype that follows the Iowa caucus can determine which candidates will drop out of the race. The media hype of the Iowa winners also determines future financial support other candidates will get. Another factor that dilutes Iowa’s importance is they allow their delegates to split their vote at the National Convention. They do not have to cast all their votes for one candidate.

Iowa has not been very successful in selecting the right Republican nominee in the past. They supported Rick Santorum in 2012. In 2008 they favored Mike Huckabee. In 1988 they favored Robert Dole. In 1980 they favored Pat Robertson. They supported Mitt Romney over the eventual nominee John McCain. They were successful in 2000 and 1996.

Three reasons the Iowa caucus is usually wrong when it comes to the candidates for the general election are Iowa is predominantly white, strongly religious and their caucus system is complex.

If you cannot rely on the early caucus and primaries or the polls what can you count on? It is simply too early to decide who will be the candidates in the general election or who will win the late primaries. Primary voters and caucus voters generally do not make up their minds until a few days before the event. In the general election voters often do not make up their minds until the last thirty days. Polls are nothing more than tools used by the media to hype their broadcast and mean nothing. Polls can be manipulated depending on how the questions are asks and the cross section of voters contacted. Keep in mind if pollsters use landline telephones that eliminate a lot of young people and if they use the Internet most young people are not going to reply to an Internet poll. Landline and Internet usually get results from older voters. If a candidate like Rubio should be successful in getting out the first time and millennium voters in the general elections the polls could be worthless. We will have a better idea who will be the candidates for the Republican and Democrats in mid-March.

I would like to see the United States do the same thing the Philippines do when it comes to campaign periods. In the U.S. campaigns last two years or more. That is entirely too long. In the Philippines there are campaign laws which limit the campaign period to about six months. No campaigning, no ads except during that open window. Candidates will be disqualified if they campaign early. By the time the actual general election comes around most Americans have grown tired of the process and some are so turned off they just stay home.

I do not think the Trump/FOX debacle will hurt Trump. Republican politicians now know they can challenge FOX and they will. In the past Republicans felt as if they had no other media to go to. Not all the people at FOX support Ms. Kelly. Brit Hume is one who has spoken to others about not supporting her and being upset she had Michael Moore on her show to defend her against Trump. Murdock the owner of FOX has been watching Roger Ailes closely since last summer. He is concerned about Ailes health and having a replacement for him. FOX generates one billion dollars in profit yearly for Murdock. There is a split over the Kelly/Trump issue at FOX and some are upset that Mr. Ailes has allow Kelly to be the spokesperson for FOX.

Do not let the media and political pundits manipulate you with polls.  I have had friends tell me I would have voted for “X”, but I voted for “Y” because the polls showed he or she was going to win and I did not want to waste my vote.

By November Hillary may have criminal charges brought against her, Bernie may be in a retirement home (I am 75 an can say that), Trump may be having mouth surgery to remove his foot, Jeb may have found a miracle vitamin and the world may know what a sneak and snake Cruz is.