Rubio is the real winner in Iowa.

I am not happy that Senator Cruz pulled ahead in the Iowa Caucus, but there is one bright side to it. A Trump win would have made it more difficult for a mainstream candidate, like Marco Rubio, to mount a comeback later in the season. I would not be surprised to see the Republican establishment get behind Cruz, even though they do not prefer him to be the next President. I think they would prefer Cruz over Trump. They may now take another look at Rubio.

 Momentum is generally overrated in primary politics, but a back-to-back win in Iowa and New Hampshire would have given Trump a chance to run the table through Super Tuesday, on March 1, especially with the establishment backed candidates so divided. It would have certainly told the establishment Trump is not just going to disappear. The party’s establishment is not well positioned to stop Trump if he fares well in the early states primaries.

If the Republican field doesn’t narrow quickly following New Hampshire there will be a real chance that Trump will build a wide delegate lead over a split field on Super Tuesday. I think the establishment is the winner coming out of Iowa because it has bought them more time. If the field of mainstream candidates narrows following New Hampshire someone acceptable to “extreme conservative” and moderate Republican voters, like a Rubio, might weaken Cruz and Trump.

Trump must begin to be cautious with his mouth and come up with sound policies because some of the extreme right wing conservatives that have been supporting Trump because they thought Cruz could not beat Trump could now go back to Cruz following Iowa. People like Trump’s slogan “Making America Great Again!” but, now that we are getting into the primaries we want to know HOW he is going to do that.

Believe it or not there are some of us Republicans that think the extreme right wing of the party is what has caused the Republican downfall. There are moderates in the Republican Party that want and will support a more moderate candidate. We blame the right wing conservatives for the racial divide within the party, for the perception that Republicans do not care for poor, orphans and widows, we blame them for not standing strong against Obama’s socialistic programs, for allowing the Democrats to make the 1 percenters look like demons and for being critical of Obamacare, but not producing a better model. Those are the reasons Trump is attractive to moderate Republicans. 

Just a note: The most segregated places in the United States is the church's. Right wing Republican Christians should pay particular attention to that fact because it does affect how people view the Republican Party and the evangelical vote.

Trump still has large vulnerabilities. I think the establishment would prefer a more moderate mainstream candidate, like Rubio. Rubio needs to show he can be a viable alternative in the primaries. A mainstream candidate would also be able to count on considerable support from many of the party’s better educated voters, especially in the West. Trump hasn’t yet faced a serious paid media campaign and it remains unclear whether he can maintain such a large share of the vote in the face of sustained attacks on his past statements. If Jeb Bush drops out and his supporters money starts to flow to Rubio it could be a game changer.

Things have been going well for Trump over the last few weeks. The mainstream candidates remain deadlocked in New Hampshire. The party hasn’t rallied against him, and there are even signs it might be more open to him than many have assumed. If he could only have come in first in Iowa it would have put him in a very strong position heading into a primary season against a divided Republican field.

On the other hand the lost in Iowa to Cruz and Rubio coming in a strong third may rattle Trump’s cage and make him realize he cannot win by slandering everyone that questions or opposes him.  Trump’s main problem is his ego and Iowa may be what he needed to knock some air out of his ego.

Trump needs to stop his tweet madness, stop his Ted Cruz birther crap and show us some substance. We may not like him personally, but some of us still believe he can get the United States back on track. Over the years some of my best employees were people I did not personally like, but they could do the job I needed done and I supported them. People should not vote for personalities they should vote for who they think will be best for the country as a whole. I do not plan on having Trump over for dinner or paling around with him. I am not looking for a friend I am looking for someone with strong executive abilities. I am also not looking for a personal counselor or pastor either. 

Cruz should have the majority of evangelical votes - but he doesn't - why?

Donald Trump is a mainline Protestant who hardly goes to church. Ben Carson’s 15 minutes of fame is over. Marco Rubio’s faith journey has taken him from Catholicism to Mormonism to evangelicalism and back to Catholicism. If Rubio has as difficult time making political decisions as he has making religious decisions I question his loyalty to any principle.

Cruz is supposed to be the real deal. A true evangelical Christian, loyal to the U.S. Constitution, Southern Baptist, a preacher’s kid and yet he has not sewed up the evangelical vote – why? He announced his candidacy at Liberty University, founded by Jerry Falwell, but Jerry Falwell’s son who is head of Liberty University supports Trump – why? No one has a better record in Congress on the social issues that “Old style” conservatives embrace, but he still does not have the evangelical vote in the basket – why?

Trump all but matches Cruz for evangelical support in Iowa. Trump’s refusal to participate in the FOX debate may change that. Cruz is going to twist the truth and out and out lie to use Trump’s refusal against him. I noticed since Trump announced he would not participate in the debate Sean Hannity who has had his head up Trumps backside has pulled it out and stuck it up Cruz’s backside. That may hurt Trump in Iowa.

Could it be that evangelicals know Cruz is a hypocrite? Southern Baptist teaches tithing ten percent of your gross income to the church is essential to your faith and according to public records Cruz contributes LESS than ONE percent. He claims to be against Wall Street, yet his wife is an executive of one of the largest Wall Street firms and even borrowed one million dollars from Wall Street banks to help finance his campaign. There’s got to be something more that’s made a lot of evangelicals wary of throwing their support to Cruz, and I think I know what it is. Evangelicals hate hypocrites.

In the last Republican presidential debate, Cruz gave his testimony, and (as he notes) he gives it all the time. But the conversion story he tells is his father’s, not his own. Cruz was born in a Christian home and has always been a Christian and was raised in the church.

I have not decided to support Trump because to be honest I do not like his fight with Megyn Kelly and FOX, Carly Fiorina (face), and Marco Rubio (sweat) or his more serious attacks on Mexican immigrants (accusing the many of what the few do), his character assault on Ben Carson, comparing him to a child molester who has pathological problems and, most recently his apparent mocking of the disability of a New York Times journalist. It bothers me he does not apologize for his remarks. I do not like his extra-large ego and pettiness, but I am convinced he can do more to help the economy and foreign affairs than any of the other candidates – he would be a strong leader. 

The warnings in Proverbs are strong: “Do you see a man who is hasty in his words? There is more hope for a fool than for him” (Proverbs 29:20). “A fool gives full vent to his spirit, but a wise man quietly holds it back” (Proverbs 29:11). I really think this applies to anyone, but especially to anyone who wants to be President of the United States.

Do you think white evangelicals are recalling an earlier election and are looking more for a candidate that is better for the country, rather than better for the church? The year of the evangelical was the Southern Baptist Jimmy Carter. President Carter brought millions of evangelicals into the political process — on behalf of the Democratic ticket. The list of white evangelicals who supported Carter that year reads like a who’s who of the religious right, including Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and Billy Graham. That fall, Carter won nearly half the evangelical vote. No Democrat has even come close to that in the decades since. Few people today would deny Carter was the worse U.S. President in our lifetime. I personally think Obama took that title from Carter.

I think the Rev. James Linzey, a retired Army chaplain and vocal leader among some conservative Evangelicals, sums up his support for Donald Trump and it applies to me and many evangelicals, “Because he tells it like it is, and he exudes honesty and transparency, and he’s the kind of person who is not going to deceive us. Evangelicals are tired of being deceived by wolves in sheep’s clothing.”

I do not think any of the political pundits or media elitist’s or Republican establishment realized how deep the voter’s frustration with the GOP really was. The Republican Party has failed to take care of even one major issue that concerns conservatives and evangelicals over the past many years.

I am not impressed with Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council endorsement of Cruz. He has for a long time urged Christian conservatives to pick a consensus presidential candidate early in the nomination process, but remember he early on endorsed the nominations of John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. I do think Cruz will gain strength among evangelicals and the only one in the end that will share in those votes is Rubio, but I believe Tony Perkins is wrong again and Cruz is not the candidate to beat a Democrat candidate.