Rubio is the real winner in Iowa.

I am not happy that Senator Cruz pulled ahead in the Iowa Caucus, but there is one bright side to it. A Trump win would have made it more difficult for a mainstream candidate, like Marco Rubio, to mount a comeback later in the season. I would not be surprised to see the Republican establishment get behind Cruz, even though they do not prefer him to be the next President. I think they would prefer Cruz over Trump. They may now take another look at Rubio.

 Momentum is generally overrated in primary politics, but a back-to-back win in Iowa and New Hampshire would have given Trump a chance to run the table through Super Tuesday, on March 1, especially with the establishment backed candidates so divided. It would have certainly told the establishment Trump is not just going to disappear. The party’s establishment is not well positioned to stop Trump if he fares well in the early states primaries.

If the Republican field doesn’t narrow quickly following New Hampshire there will be a real chance that Trump will build a wide delegate lead over a split field on Super Tuesday. I think the establishment is the winner coming out of Iowa because it has bought them more time. If the field of mainstream candidates narrows following New Hampshire someone acceptable to “extreme conservative” and moderate Republican voters, like a Rubio, might weaken Cruz and Trump.

Trump must begin to be cautious with his mouth and come up with sound policies because some of the extreme right wing conservatives that have been supporting Trump because they thought Cruz could not beat Trump could now go back to Cruz following Iowa. People like Trump’s slogan “Making America Great Again!” but, now that we are getting into the primaries we want to know HOW he is going to do that.

Believe it or not there are some of us Republicans that think the extreme right wing of the party is what has caused the Republican downfall. There are moderates in the Republican Party that want and will support a more moderate candidate. We blame the right wing conservatives for the racial divide within the party, for the perception that Republicans do not care for poor, orphans and widows, we blame them for not standing strong against Obama’s socialistic programs, for allowing the Democrats to make the 1 percenters look like demons and for being critical of Obamacare, but not producing a better model. Those are the reasons Trump is attractive to moderate Republicans. 

Just a note: The most segregated places in the United States is the church's. Right wing Republican Christians should pay particular attention to that fact because it does affect how people view the Republican Party and the evangelical vote.

Trump still has large vulnerabilities. I think the establishment would prefer a more moderate mainstream candidate, like Rubio. Rubio needs to show he can be a viable alternative in the primaries. A mainstream candidate would also be able to count on considerable support from many of the party’s better educated voters, especially in the West. Trump hasn’t yet faced a serious paid media campaign and it remains unclear whether he can maintain such a large share of the vote in the face of sustained attacks on his past statements. If Jeb Bush drops out and his supporters money starts to flow to Rubio it could be a game changer.

Things have been going well for Trump over the last few weeks. The mainstream candidates remain deadlocked in New Hampshire. The party hasn’t rallied against him, and there are even signs it might be more open to him than many have assumed. If he could only have come in first in Iowa it would have put him in a very strong position heading into a primary season against a divided Republican field.

On the other hand the lost in Iowa to Cruz and Rubio coming in a strong third may rattle Trump’s cage and make him realize he cannot win by slandering everyone that questions or opposes him.  Trump’s main problem is his ego and Iowa may be what he needed to knock some air out of his ego.

Trump needs to stop his tweet madness, stop his Ted Cruz birther crap and show us some substance. We may not like him personally, but some of us still believe he can get the United States back on track. Over the years some of my best employees were people I did not personally like, but they could do the job I needed done and I supported them. People should not vote for personalities they should vote for who they think will be best for the country as a whole. I do not plan on having Trump over for dinner or paling around with him. I am not looking for a friend I am looking for someone with strong executive abilities. I am also not looking for a personal counselor or pastor either.